Thread/ As one of the biggest regional escalations in the history of the #Syria war unfolds, here are a few thoughts on the Turkish-Russian/Syrian triangle of fighting in #Idlib – who will back down 1/Evidently #Russia has many limitations and concerns when it comes to an armed confrontation with #Turkey, something which has become increasingly apparent with its decisions in Syria, it does not want to enter a direct war with Turkey
2/#Russia has always proceeded with caution with its regional competitors or partners in #Syria, be that NATO, Turkey, or even Israel, it prefers to take a neutral or passive stance, for example, the Syrian S300’s have not been activated and use of them is clearly not allowed.
3/Russian jets have barely seen the skies in Syria since the deadly strikes on Turkish troops, so #Russia is unwilling to engage #Turkey directly, Lavrov stated that “as soon as Russians found out (strikes), it requested gov forces to stop offensive to provide a safe evacuation”
4/The Turkish military through artillery and precise drones have been targeting with much success hundreds of Syrian positions, amour, & installations since the Turkish backed recapture of Saraqib which has heavily damaged the SAA (pro-government media has been coy on casualties)
5/ Turkey has done more harm to the Syrian army in days than whole areas & sectors did in years of fighting, the Syrian military has shown a complete lack of ability to deal with Turkish drones, videos of Turkish-inflicted carnage caused some criticism towards the Russians.
6/ For SAA it has been loss after loss with regards to men and equipment since #Turkey began hitting positions & amour, which tells us why advances have been so slow in certain areas &casualties high. Turkish drones have been over Idlib like hornets over the last few days
7/ Images of captured Syrian amour also show the rare use of camouflage, suggesting measures have been taken to decrease vulnerability to drone strikes, meaning they have been getting targeted for a while now, and the Russians have been able to provide no assistance or reprieve.
8/ There still is time for #Russia to reassert its dominance, but even then, no real desire exists to enter a long-drawn-out proxy confrontation with #Turkey in #Idlib, Russia’s main interests in #Syria have been secured.
9/ #Russia supports the Syrian army with airstrikes, but in return, it has no willingness to do anything else, its economic interests are secured (taking over Syrian gas & phosphates. etc), it wants to reap the benefits of its intervention not get drawn into to a regional war.
10/ For Russia the lack of defensive assistance to the SAA and the lack of Russian jets over #Idlib suggest one main theme, #Russia wanted #Turkey to respond and get it over with, and then act depending on how bad the situation was.
11/ For the Syrian army, the situation was catastrophic, and the large losses in manpower and equipment have not only added up but have paralyzed the Syrian army around #Idlib, meaning a well-planned militant offensive could reverse most SAA gains this month.
12/ Whilst its difficult to provide estimations, perhaps SAA casualties have averaged around 50 a day since #Turkey began using armed drones, fighting on the front-lines included. The equipment losses have been considerable, but conspicuously easier to replace.
13/ #Turkey has been striking areas away from #Idlib, sfira defense factories in #Aleppo were targeted and Nairab/Kwaires air-bases were reportedly struck . If Turkey continues volume of attacks, SAA will not be able to fend of any ground attacks without serious Russian air-power
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