How the coronavirus outbreak could affect the economy

A deadly outbreak of a new coronavirus similar to SARS has caused concern among health experts and investors. The economy could also be hurt by the disease if consumers skip travel and leisure activities to avoid getting sick. Here's what we know so far.

As China’s Wuhan virus spreads, it is expected to continue slamming Chinese and other financial markets, but economists say it may ultimately have more impact on sentiment than be a lasting negative for the economy or markets.

Strategists also point to the reaction in Chinese and other Asian markets following the SARS virus, which declined as the outbreak spread but bounced back once it was contained.

For now, strategists expect a more direct impact in Asian markets with a less intense hit to U.S. stocks though investors have been moving into the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds. The hit to U.S. stocks would be far greater if the virus proves to be more deadly than it is now believed to be or infects large numbers of people both inside and outside of China.

On Thursday, Shanghai’s stock market tumbled nearly 2.8% and the yuan weakened, as China’s government took the extreme step of closing off all public transportation in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people where the virus was believed to have started. Two more cities were also put on lockdown.

Shanghai stocks are now closed for one week for the celebration of the Chinese lunar new year.

U.S. stocks were weaker Thursday with the Dow falling as much as 219 points, but it was just slightly lower in afternoon trading after the World Health Organization declared it was too early to call the coronavirus a global emergency.

“What happened here is everybody was shocked they would shut down a city of 11 million people. That made it sound like they were more worried about it. It’s still a factor,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. Cashin said if the outbreak is large in China and hits its economy, that weakness would spread globally. If the outbreak reaches the U.S., “it would be a larger hit.”

China’s response has been a stark contrast to its slower reaction during the spread of SARS, which is the outbreak most compared to the current virus. There were an estimated 8,000 people infected with SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, and nearly 800 died, during late 2002 and 2003. The current virus, known as 2019-nCoV, has infected about 830 individuals and killed 25.

“The global response is much more proactive. China is being much more transparent. The virus appears less virulent,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Global Advisors. “On the other hand, because the world is more mobile now, it has the possibility of spreading quickly. It’s impossible to predict where it goes. There are parts of the market that were questioning any big rebound on the trade deal even before this came out.”

At the start of the SARS epidemic, the U.S. stock market was just coming out of a bear market, but it hit another low in the first quarter, 2003 on concerns about the outbreak, he said. “It did result in a retest of the ’02 lows in March ’03, but then that was the end of that bear market,” said Boockvar.

He expects any hit to the U.S. market to be less severe than in China’s markets, unless the outbreak intensifies. “The [U.S.] stock market has taken on a life of its own in terms of momentum. I think what the Fed will announce in terms of its balance sheet next week will have more impact than the coronavirus,” he said.

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